"""Turn a raw daily-weather record into day-of-year climatology and letter grades. For a given day of the year we build the reference distribution from every historical day whose day-of-year is within +/- `HALF_WINDOW` days of it (wrapping around the year end). An observed value is then placed on that distribution as an empirical percentile and mapped to a human-readable grade. """ import datetime import warnings import math import numpy as np import polars as pl HALF_WINDOW = 7 # +/- 7 days -> a 15-day seasonal window RAIN_THRESHOLD = 0.01 # inches; a day with < this much precip counts as "dry" DSR_LOOKBACK_MIN_DAYS = 14 # min history required before a window to seed dry streaks # Metrics graded on the diverging temperature scale (percentile -> TEMP_BANDS): # the two air temps, the combined "feels like" (heat index / wind chill) plus its # separate apparent high/low sides (fmax/fmin — the calendar recombines them # client-side around a user-chosen comfort temperature), wind speed and wind # gust. Each is a single daily scalar placed on its own ±7-day historical # distribution, so calm/low reads as the cool (blue) end and windy/high as the # hot (red) end — same coloring + categories as temperature. TEMP_METRICS = ("tmax", "tmin", "feels", "fmax", "fmin", "humid", "wind", "gust") # All metrics that get a percentile summary (temperature-like + precipitation). CLIMO_METRICS = TEMP_METRICS + ("precip",) # Percentile -> (grade label, css class) for temperature. Higher percentile = warmer. # 9 symmetric tiers around the middle 40-60% "Normal", escalating to "Near Record" # at both edges. Each entry's number is the tier's LOWER bound; a tier spans # [lower, next-lower) — i.e. lower-inclusive, upper-exclusive (a p90 day is "Very # High", not "High"). Boundaries sit on multiples of 5 (plus the 1/99 record edges). TEMP_BANDS = [ (99, "Near Record", "rec-hot"), # >=99 extreme high (danger) (90, "Very High", "very-hot"), # 90-99 (75, "High", "hot"), # 75-90 (60, "Above Normal", "warm"), # 60-75 (40, "Normal", "normal"), # 40-60 (the middle) (25, "Below Normal", "cool"), # 25-40 (10, "Low", "cold"), # 10-25 (1, "Very Low", "very-cold"), # 1-10 (0, "Near Record", "rec-cold"), # <1 extreme low (danger) ] # Precipitation is graded ONLY among days that actually rained (>= RAIN_THRESHOLD) # in the seasonal window — a "rain percentile". Rain is one-directional (heavier = # more extreme), so these 8 tiers are sequential light->heavy, using the SAME cut # points as temperature. Dry days are handled separately (the "dry" class, colored # by dry streak in the UI). Same [lower, upper) convention as TEMP_BANDS. RAIN_BANDS = [ (99, "Extreme", "wet-9"), # heaviest rain for the season (darkest) (90, "Very Heavy", "wet-8"), # 90-99 (75, "Heavy", "wet-7"), # 75-90 (60, "Mod–Heavy", "wet-6"), # 60-75 (40, "Moderate", "wet-5"), # 40-60 (25, "Light–Mod", "wet-4"), # 25-40 (10, "Light", "wet-3"), # 10-25 (0, "Very Light", "wet-2"), # <10 the lightest measurable rain (was two # tiers, Very Light + Trace, now merged) ] def _ladder_from(bands, bottom_lo=None): """Derive the single-day detail view's tier ladder from a band table, so the two can never drift apart: each tier as (class, label, printable percentile range, lower-bound pct, upper-bound pct). The top tier is open-ended (>99); the bottom runs down from the 1st percentile — ``bottom_lo`` marks its lower bound (None for temperature; 0 for rain, whose lightest tier bottoms out at the smallest measured rain day).""" top_thr, top_label, top_css = bands[0] out = [(top_css, top_label, f">{top_thr}%", top_thr, None)] for (thr, label, css), (prev_thr, _, _) in zip(bands[1:-1], bands[:-2]): out.append((css, label, f"{thr}–{prev_thr}%", thr, prev_thr)) edge = bands[-2][0] out.append((bands[-1][2], bands[-1][1], f"<{edge}%", bottom_lo, edge)) return out _TEMP_LADDER = _ladder_from(TEMP_BANDS) # Rain tiers are on the rain-day-only percentile scale (see _grade_precip). _RAIN_LADDER = _ladder_from(RAIN_BANDS, bottom_lo=0) def pct_ordinal(pct) -> str: """A percentile as a display ordinal: 66.4 -> '66th', 99.6 -> '99th'. Floored into 1..99 on purpose. An empirical percentile is a rank against the sample, so rounding can land on 100 (or 0), and "100th percentile" reads as a measurement error rather than "as extreme as it has ever been". The band label ("Near Record") carries the how-extreme part. Canonical for every surface — the frontend mirrors it as pctOrd() in shared.js, so the Day page, the calendar tooltip, the chart, the city pages and the homepage strip all say the same thing about the same reading. """ try: # floor(x + 0.5), NOT round(): Python's round() is half-to-even, so it # gives 16 for 16.5 while JavaScript's Math.round gives 17 — the same # reading would then read "16th" server-side and "17th" client-side. n = min(99, max(1, math.floor(float(pct) + 0.5))) except (TypeError, ValueError): return "—" suffix = "th" if 10 <= n % 100 <= 20 else {1: "st", 2: "nd", 3: "rd"}.get(n % 10, "th") return f"{n}{suffix}" def _band(pct: float, bands) -> tuple[str, str]: # The top tier is strict (pct > its threshold): "Near Record" high means # strictly beyond the 99th percentile — the top <1% — mirroring the # strictly-below-1st bottom tier (its lower neighbor already catches pct >= 1). # Everything in between stays lower-inclusive, upper-exclusive. top_thr, top_label, top_css = bands[0] if pct > top_thr: return top_label, top_css for threshold, label, css in bands[1:]: if pct >= threshold: return label, css return bands[-1][1], bands[-1][2] def _as_date(d) -> datetime.date: """Coerce a date-ish value (``date``, ``datetime``, or ISO string) to a plain ``datetime.date`` — the one date type the grading layer works in.""" if isinstance(d, str): return datetime.date.fromisoformat(d[:10]) if isinstance(d, datetime.datetime): return d.date() return d def _finite(col: pl.Series) -> np.ndarray: """Finite float values of a polars Series as an ndarray, with nulls and NaN dropped — the frame→numpy bridge every percentile routine grades on.""" a = np.asarray(col.to_numpy(), dtype="float64") return a[~np.isnan(a)] def window_mask(doys: np.ndarray, target_doy: int, half: int = HALF_WINDOW) -> np.ndarray: diff = np.abs(doys.astype(int) - int(target_doy)) circular = np.minimum(diff, 366 - diff) return circular <= half def empirical_percentile(samples: np.ndarray, value) -> float | None: """Mid-rank percentile of `value` within `samples` (handles ties correctly).""" n = samples.size if n == 0 or value is None or (isinstance(value, float) and np.isnan(value)): return None less = int(np.sum(samples < value)) equal = int(np.sum(samples == value)) return round(100.0 * (less + 0.5 * equal) / n, 1) def climatology(df: pl.DataFrame, target_doy: int) -> dict: """Summarize the +/-7 day historical distribution for one day of the year.""" doys = df["doy"].to_numpy() sub = df.filter(window_mask(doys, target_doy)) years = sub["date"].dt.year() out = { "target_doy": int(target_doy), "n_samples": int(len(sub)), "year_range": [int(years.min()), int(years.max())] if len(sub) else None, } for var in CLIMO_METRICS: if var not in sub.columns: out[var] = None continue v = _finite(sub[var]) if v.size == 0: out[var] = None continue p10, p40, p50, p60, p90 = np.percentile(v, [10, 40, 50, 60, 90]) out[var] = { "min": round(float(np.min(v)), 2), "p10": round(float(p10), 1), "p40": round(float(p40), 1), # Normal band is now 40-60 (see TEMP_BANDS) "p50": round(float(p50), 1), "p60": round(float(p60), 1), "p90": round(float(p90), 1), "max": round(float(np.max(v)), 2), "mean": round(float(np.mean(v)), 1), } return out def all_time_records(df: pl.DataFrame) -> dict: """All-time record high/low (and the date each occurred) per metric across the full archive — the raw material for the records page and the city teaser.""" out: dict = {} for var in CLIMO_METRICS: if var not in df.columns: continue sub = df.select(["date", var]).drop_nulls(var) if sub.is_empty(): continue hi = sub.row(int(sub[var].arg_max()), named=True) lo = sub.row(int(sub[var].arg_min()), named=True) out[var] = { "max": round(float(hi[var]), 2), "max_date": hi["date"].isoformat() if hasattr(hi["date"], "isoformat") else str(hi["date"]), "min": round(float(lo[var]), 2), "min_date": lo["date"].isoformat() if hasattr(lo["date"], "isoformat") else str(lo["date"]), } return out def longest_dry_streak(df: pl.DataFrame) -> tuple[int, str | None]: """Longest run of consecutive days without measurable rain, and the ISO date the streak began. A dry day is precip < RAIN_THRESHOLD; null precip counts as dry.""" if "precip" not in df.columns: return (0, None) d = df.select(["date", "precip"]).sort("date") dates, precips = d["date"].to_list(), d["precip"].to_list() best_len, best_start = 0, None cur_len, cur_start = 0, None for dt, p in zip(dates, precips): wet = p is not None and not (isinstance(p, float) and np.isnan(p)) and p >= RAIN_THRESHOLD if wet: cur_len, cur_start = 0, None else: if cur_len == 0: cur_start = dt cur_len += 1 if cur_len > best_len: best_len, best_start = cur_len, cur_start start = best_start.isoformat() if best_start and hasattr(best_start, "isoformat") else ( str(best_start) if best_start else None) return (best_len, start) def _band_stats(samples: np.ndarray) -> dict | None: if samples.size == 0: return None # Percentiles for the chart's nested "normal" fan, matching the 9 tier bounds: # p40-p60 is the Normal band; p25/p75, p10/p90 and p1/p99 mark the successive # Below/Above Normal, Low/High, Very Low/High and Near-Record edges. p1, p10, p25, p40, p50, p60, p75, p90, p99 = np.percentile( samples, [1, 10, 25, 40, 50, 60, 75, 90, 99] ) return { "p1": round(float(p1), 1), "p10": round(float(p10), 1), "p25": round(float(p25), 1), "p40": round(float(p40), 1), "p50": round(float(p50), 1), "p60": round(float(p60), 1), "p75": round(float(p75), 1), "p90": round(float(p90), 1), "p99": round(float(p99), 1), } def _grade_value(samples: np.ndarray, value, bands) -> dict | None: """Grade a temperature value by its empirical percentile in the window.""" pct = empirical_percentile(samples, value) if pct is None: return None label, css = _band(pct, bands) return {"value": round(float(value), 2), "percentile": pct, "grade": label, "class": css} def _grade_precip(samples: np.ndarray, value) -> dict | None: """Grade precipitation by its "rain percentile" — the rank of the day's rainfall among *rain days only* (>= RAIN_THRESHOLD) in the window. Dry days get the "dry" class with no percentile (the UI colors them by dry streak instead).""" if value is None or (isinstance(value, float) and np.isnan(value)): return None value = float(value) if value < RAIN_THRESHOLD: return {"value": round(value, 2), "percentile": None, "grade": "Dry", "class": "dry"} rain = samples[samples >= RAIN_THRESHOLD] pct = empirical_percentile(rain, value) if pct is None: # no historical rain days in window (extremely rare) pct = 100.0 label, css = _band(pct, RAIN_BANDS) return {"value": round(value, 2), "percentile": pct, "grade": label, "class": css} def dry_streaks(dates, precips) -> dict[str, int]: """Map each date (ISO string) to days since the last measurable rain, walking a chronological precip series. Missing precip counts as a dry day. `dates` is an iterable of ``datetime.date`` (a polars Date column's ``.to_list()``).""" out: dict[str, int] = {} streak = 0 for d, p in zip(dates, precips): wet = p is not None and not (isinstance(p, float) and np.isnan(p)) and p >= RAIN_THRESHOLD streak = 0 if wet else streak + 1 out[_as_date(d).isoformat()] = streak return out def grade_range(df: pl.DataFrame, start, end) -> list[dict]: """Grade every historical day in [start, end] against its own ±7-day window. Powers the calendar view. Reuses one window per day-of-year across the whole range, so a 2-year span computes at most ~366 windows (not one per day). Each day is returned in a compact shape: value (v), percentile (pct), css class (c), grade label (g). """ start, end = _as_date(start), _as_date(end) full = df.sort("date") doys_all = full["doy"].to_numpy() cols = {v: np.asarray(full[v].to_numpy(), dtype="float64") for v in CLIMO_METRICS if v in full.columns} masks: dict[int, np.ndarray] = {} cache: dict[tuple[int, str], np.ndarray] = {} def samples(doy: int, var: str) -> np.ndarray: key = (doy, var) if key not in cache: mask = masks.get(doy) if mask is None: mask = masks[doy] = window_mask(doys_all, doy) arr = cols[var][mask] cache[key] = arr[~np.isnan(arr)] return cache[key] # Days since last measurable rain. Computed over the ENTIRE record that precedes # the window — not just the window, nor a fixed N-day buffer — so the streak on # the first shown day is exact even when a dry spell straddles the window start. # A fixed 14-day lookback would be the bare minimum but still undercounts longer # droughts (the record has 25-day dry streaks); using the full history (already # cached per cell) is both correct for any streak length and free. if full["date"].min() > start - datetime.timedelta(days=DSR_LOOKBACK_MIN_DAYS): # Should never happen (history starts in 1980); guards against a future # change that trims history and would silently truncate streaks. warnings.warn("dry-streak lookback shorter than the 14-day minimum", stacklevel=2) dsr_map = dry_streaks(full["date"].to_list(), cols["precip"]) sub = full.filter((pl.col("date") >= start) & (pl.col("date") <= end)) out = [] for row in sub.iter_rows(named=True): doy = int(row["doy"]) date = row["date"].isoformat() rec = {"date": date, "dsr": dsr_map.get(date)} for var in TEMP_METRICS: if var not in cols: rec[var] = None continue g = _grade_value(samples(doy, var), row[var], TEMP_BANDS) rec[var] = {"v": g["value"], "pct": g["percentile"], "c": g["class"], "g": g["grade"]} if g else None gp = _grade_precip(samples(doy, "precip"), row["precip"]) rec["precip"] = {"v": gp["value"], "pct": gp["percentile"], "c": gp["class"], "g": gp["grade"]} if gp else None out.append(rec) return out def _temp_ladder(samples: np.ndarray) -> dict | None: """Value at each temperature tier boundary within the ±7-day window.""" if samples.size == 0: return None marks = {m: round(float(np.percentile(samples, m)), 1) for m in (1, 10, 25, 40, 50, 60, 75, 90, 99)} tiers = [ {"c": c, "label": label, "range": rng, "lo": marks[lo] if lo is not None else None, "hi": marks[hi] if hi is not None else None} for c, label, rng, lo, hi in _TEMP_LADDER ] return {"tiers": tiers, "median": marks[50], "min": round(float(samples.min()), 1), "max": round(float(samples.max()), 1)} def _precip_ladder(samples: np.ndarray) -> dict | None: """Value at each rain-day tier boundary, plus how often the window is dry.""" if samples.size == 0: return None rain = samples[samples >= RAIN_THRESHOLD] n = int(samples.size) tiers = [] if rain.size: marks = {m: round(float(np.percentile(rain, m)), 2) for m in (1, 10, 25, 40, 60, 75, 90, 99)} rmin = round(float(rain.min()), 2) tiers = [ {"c": c, "label": label, "range": rng, "lo": rmin if lo == 0 else marks[lo], "hi": marks[hi] if hi is not None else None} for c, label, rng, lo, hi in _RAIN_LADDER ] tiers.append({"c": "dry", "label": "Dry", "range": f"< {RAIN_THRESHOLD}\"", "lo": 0.0, "hi": None}) return {"tiers": tiers, "dry_pct": round(100.0 * (n - rain.size) / n, 1), "rain_days": int(rain.size), "min": round(float(samples.min()), 2), "max": round(float(samples.max()), 2)} def day_detail(df: pl.DataFrame, date, obs: dict | None) -> dict: """Full percentile breakdown for one day: the value at every tier boundary in its own ±7-day window, plus where the observed values (if any) land. Powers the single-day detail page. `obs` may be None when the date isn't yet in the record — then only the climatological ladders are returned.""" d = _as_date(date) doy = d.timetuple().tm_yday sub = df.filter(window_mask(df["doy"].to_numpy(), doy)) years = sub["date"].dt.year() metrics = {} for var in TEMP_METRICS: if var not in sub.columns: continue vals = _finite(sub[var]) metrics[var] = { "ladder": _temp_ladder(vals), "obs": _grade_value(vals, obs.get(var) if obs else None, TEMP_BANDS), } precip = _finite(sub["precip"]) metrics["precip"] = { "ladder": _precip_ladder(precip), "obs": _grade_precip(precip, obs.get("precip") if obs else None), } return { "date": d.isoformat(), "doy": doy, "n_samples": int(len(sub)), "year_range": [int(years.min()), int(years.max())] if len(sub) else None, "metrics": metrics, } def grade_day(df: pl.DataFrame, date, obs: dict) -> dict: """Grade one observed day against its own day-of-year +/-7 window.""" d = _as_date(date) doy = d.timetuple().tm_yday doys = df["doy"].to_numpy() sub = df.filter(window_mask(doys, doy)) result = {"date": d.isoformat(), "doy": doy} for var in TEMP_METRICS: result[var] = ( _grade_value(_finite(sub[var]), obs.get(var), TEMP_BANDS) if var in sub.columns else None ) result["precip"] = _grade_precip(_finite(sub["precip"]), obs.get("precip")) # Per-day normal band (this day-of-year's ±7 window) so the trend chart can # draw the "normal" envelope each actual value is compared against. result["normals"] = { var: _band_stats(_finite(sub[var])) for var in CLIMO_METRICS if var in sub.columns } # A single "departure" score: how far the day strayed from the median (50th pct), # taking the most extreme of high/low. 0 = perfectly normal, 50 = record extreme. departures = [ abs(result[v]["percentile"] - 50) for v in ("tmax", "tmin") if result[v] is not None ] result["departure"] = round(max(departures), 1) if departures else None return result